2023: The known and unknown political gods

Sometimes ago in 1993, a journalist asked former President Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida in the build-up to the presidential election of June 1993 asking, of the two candidates, Alhaji Bashir Tofa of the National Republican Convention (NRC) and Chief MKO Abiola of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), who will likely win the scheduled election. The journalist obviously wanted to nail IBB to it by exposing his inclination on which of the two candidates and parties the Federal Military Government (FMG) was rooting for.

But the gap-toothed Minna-born General, the Maradonna, beat him and all watchers to it with his reply. According to IBB, 'Of a truth, we know the loser but we are yet to know the winner' [paraphrased]. The former President who never allowed the next question of who the winner is (or was or would be) before dashing into the waiting vehicle, left everyone speculating to this day. Nigerians and the rest of the world may have known the loser but the winner was never to be. That election never produced any clear-cut winner even though the results so far turned in before the infamous annulment by the military government indicated that Chief MKO Abiola's SDP was in the lead.

Today, some 28 years after, we are yet in another season of political harvest when gladiators are at it again. Although, speculation is rife among many watchers of Nigerian politics that barring any last-minute of political horse-trading, the likes of former Nigerian Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar; Gov. Aminu Tambuwal of Sokoto State and the immediate past President of the Nigerian Senate, Alhaji (Dr.) Bukola Saraki, are among notable Northerners that may likely throw their hats into the ring for the next year's presidential poll, it seems to me that the dining table for the said election would certainly be in the West of the Southern part of the country but the kitchen would be in the North of the country. The guests at the dining will have to wait until the chefs are done cooking from the kitchen.

The incumbent Vice President, Professor Yemi Osibanjo and the National Leader of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and former Governor of Lagos State, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, both Yorubas, had, in a couple of days ago, paid important visits to the country's seat of power to inform President Muhammadu Buhari, of their intention to vie for the highest office in the land and probably seek for his support and endorsement. This has put to rest the speculation regarding whether the duo would be contenders, first, for the ticket of the ruling party, APC, and two, for the plumb seat in Aso Rock comes 2023.

However, an important note must be taken that given the history of power contests in Nigeria, the early birds do not always win the race. For example, the Northern People's Congress (NPC), having secured the required seats in parliament during the 1959 independence election, turned all eyes on Sir Ahmadu Bello, the Sardauna of Sokoto, the Leader of the party to assume the seat of the Prime Minister. Alas, it was the Deputy Leader, Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa, whom the Prime Ministership seat was conceded to. There was Major Chukwuma Kaduna Nzeogwu-led coup in January 1966 where all major political leaders from the North and their allies from the South were killed but never translated to Major Nzeogwu himself taking over power but Major-General Aguiyi-Ironsi.

After the counter-coup of July 1966, Brigadier General Murtala Mohammed who was originally tipped to assume control was prevailed upon to concede to General Yakubu Gowon. After the assumption of power by Murtala Mohammed from Yakubu Gowon via coup, the abortive February 13, 1976 coup by Col. Bukar Sukar Dimka that led to the death of Murtala was supposed to originally bring in General Theophilus Danjuma but compromise was reached that paved way for General Olusegun Obasanjo.

In the transition from military to civil rule of 1979, Chief Obafemi Awolowo of the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) was originally thought to be the one succeeding General Obasanjo. But it was alleged that Chief Obasanjo told the bewildered nation that best candidates do not necessarily win elections. Rather than Chief Awolowo, it was Alhaji Shehu Shagari whose initial ambition was to go to the House of Representatives that was drawn into the presidential race and won on the platform of the National Party of Nigeria (NPN). Although, that the best candidate do not necessarily win election in Nigeria has always be the undoing of Nigeria. This has not only rob us of quality leadership but impose heavily on all of us the tragedy of governance.

During the aborted Third Republic, indeed, the loser was known but the winner, though, legally speaking, could be guessed but never to be till date. When General Abacha died in 1998, General Abdulsalami Abubakar who was not familiarly known by many Nigerians became the C-in-C against the politically ambitious ones. In the 1998 presidential election, while the Yorubas preferred Chief Olu Falae of the AD/APP alliance, it was Chief Olusegun Obasanjo of the PDP that won the election.

In the December 2006 presidential primary election of the PDP, Nigerians were shocked that of all the major contenders for the party's ticket like the then Governors of Rivers and Cross River States, Chief Peter Odili and Donald Duke from the south and several others from the North, it was Gov. Umaru Musa Yar'Adua of Katsina State, a black horse, that emerged. He went on to win the most controversially contested presidential election!

In 2015, against this age-long belief among many Nigerians that it is an impossible task for incumbents to lose elections, a sitting President and candidate for the 2015 presidential election, Goodluck Jonathan, lost the election and conceded defeat to the incumbent President Buhari of the APC.

While some of us are taking notes and stocks of the known gods, we are eager to know the unknown gods! As 2023 draws nigh, Nigerians should be asking the question John the Baptist asked Christ. In Matthew 11: 2-3, it is reportedly said: "And when John had heard in prison about the works of Christ, he sent two of his disciples and said to Him, “Are You the Coming One, or do we look for another?”. We need to pay attention to how those jostling for Aso Rock come 2023 answer this question - Are they the Coming Ones, or do we look for another?

God bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria